Québec Portal Version française To contact us Return to Home page

The commission
Mandate
Members
Documents
Commission publications
References
bibliography
Public hearings
Presentation of briefs
Briefs received
International Symposium on Fiscal Imbalance
 
 
  Documents

Fiscal Prospect for the Federal and Québec Governments
Report prepared for the Commission on Fiscal Imbalance by the Conference Board of Canada

The Table of contents and the Introduction are presented here. The entire document is only available in PDF format (412 ko).

TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUMMARY
1. INTRODUCTION
2. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
3. PROJECTION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA'S PUBLIC ACCOUNTS

3.1. CBOC'S LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR CANADA
3.2. MAIN ASSUMPTIONS USED IN PROJECTING THE PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
3.3. FORECAST FEDERAL BUDGETARY BALANCE

4. PROJECTION OF THE GOVERNMENT OF QUÉBEC'S PUBLIC ACCOUNTS

4.1. CBOC'S LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR QUÉBEC
4.2. HEALTH CARE AND EDUCATION EXPENDITURE MODELS
4.2.1. Health care spending
4.2.1.1. Data sources
4.2.1.2. Health care spending forecast model
4.2.1.3. Results for health care spending
4.2.2. Education spending
4.2.2.1. Data sources
4.2.2.2. Education spending forecast model
4.2.2.3. Results for education spending
4.3. MAIN ASSUMPTIONS USED IN PROJECTING THE PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
4.4. FORECAST QUÉBEC BUDGET BALANCE

5. CONCLUSION

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: Key Economic Indicators - Québec
TABLE 1B: Gross domestic product, income-based - Québec
TABLE 2: Key Economic Indicators - Canada
TABLE 2B: Gross domestic product, income-based - Canada
TABLE 3: Québec government revenues
TABLE 3B: Québec government expenditures
TABLE 4: Federal government revenues
TABLE 4B: Federal government expenditures
TABLE 4C: Budgetary balance and net debt of the federal government
TABLE 5: Population by age and gender cohort (percentage of total population) - Québec
TABLE 6: Per capita government health care spending by age cohort (males) - Québec
TABLE 6B: Per capita government health care spending by age cohort (females) - Québec
TABLE 7: Government education spending by sector and per student and enrolments by sector - Québec

1. INTRODUCTION
In May 2001, the Québec government set up the Commission on Fiscal Imbalance to identify and analyse the underlying causes of fiscal imbalance between the federal and Québec governments. This term is used to describe the situation in which some provinces have insufficient revenues to cover required expenditures, especially with respect to health care, education and social services while, the federal government, would have revenues that exceed the costs associated with programs under its jurisdiction. Indeed, fiscal imbalance raises numerous fundamental questions regarding the sources of revenue of governments and the nature of their expenditures.
The Commission has been asked, under its mandate, to obtain the opinions and suggestions of experts based in Québec and elsewhere concerning the causes and practical consequences of this imbalance and the concrete solutions to be adopted to remedy it. In order to help fulfil its mandate, the Commission on Fiscal Imbalance asked the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) to project over the next 20 years the public accounts of the Québec and federal governments.
The Constitution gives the provinces jurisdiction over health care, education and social services. Programs in these sectors are very costly, especially in the case of health care where costs are rising rapidly due to, among other things, the ageing population. The projections must be done with special attention paid to the impact that demographic changes will have on health care and education spending, the largest expenditure categories in the Québec government's budget. Thus, the Conference Board of Canada has developed two forecasting models to better evaluate the impact that these expenditure categories, which fall under provincial jurisdiction, will have on the Québec government's public accounts.
Following a clarification of the study's objectives, this report is composed of two main sections. The first section presents the projections of the federal government's public accounts. The Conference Board of Canada's long-term economic scenario, the basis for forecasting public revenues and expenditures, is first summarized. The key assumptions underlying the economic projections are clearly spelled out and the findings are presented.
The second section presents the projection of the Québec government's public accounts in a similar manner, although particular attention is paid to the projections for health care and education spending. Indeed, the CBoC has developed forecast models for these two expenditure categories that rely on changes in per capita spending on health care and education. Part of this report is devoted to presenting the methodology used to develop these two models. The results are then included in the projection of the Québec government's public accounts. The report concludes with a comparison of the fiscal prospects for the federal and Québec governments.




Home | Québec Portal | To Contact us | Français
The Commission | Documents | Public hearings | Briefs received| Symposium


© Gouvernement du Québec, 2002